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11-04-2018 02:41 PM  35 months ago
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About the Polls...
Lately I've been paying more attention to "news" that begins with "Polls Show...." It sounds official enough. It infers some unbiased science was applied. It's presented as fact. I've begun to wonder if it isn't little more than pure fabrication. Who does these polls? I've never been polled. In fact, I don't take polls. If someone calls my phone or stops me in the grocery store and says "Do you have a minute?" my response is unwavering "No".

Below is a screenshot of the front page of the USAToday the night before the 2016 Presidential election. They had been showing this for months prior. It shows Hillary winning in a landslide taking 263 electoral votes to Donald's 180. If every "tossup" vote went to Donald, he would win with 275 electoral votes to Hillary's 263.

Below is the morning after the election. After the undecided states were counted, Donald had won with a clear mandate. He took well over 300 electoral votes to Hillary's 218. Hillary didn't come even distantly close to taking the 263 votes she was expected to take.

The end results of this is that I was left with, 1.) zero faith in their polling, and 2.) a clear impression that the USAToday was trying to influence the outcome of the election by building false momentum.

Now to the point. Below is a screenshot of USAToday's polling predictions for Tuesday's mid-term elections.

I'll be interested to see what the graphics look like Wednesday morning. For the reasons noted above, I wish I could assume the polling numbers were accurate and unbiased - but I don't. Maybe this time the numbers will be more accurate. If that turns out to be the case I will be disappointed in the outcome but my faith in the polling will be restored (slightly).

Thoughts? Early predictions?
"Well, nothing bad can happen now."
11-04-2018 06:58 PM  35 months ago
spaceman spiff

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Only one poll counts.

Looking forward to having my street corners, phone, radio, and you tube back. Mid terms ussually bring a shift away from whomever is in the whitehouse, but democritters have so badly overplayed their hand recently that i would not be suprized to find that shift is much smaller than most midterms.
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