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HelicopterOff Topics News & Politics › There Are 4 Ways This Election Can End...
10-24-2016 02:49 AM  13 months agoPost 1
ZagnutrrNovice - Illinois - USA - My Posts: All  Forum  Topic

...And 3 Involve Clinton Winning
Oct 21, 2016 at 8:27 PM By Nate Silver
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...linton-winning/

It’s tempting to say that voters have made up their minds and that the presidential vote is set. Hillary Clinton has a 6.6-percentage-point lead in the popular vote and an 87 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, according to our polls-only forecast. A week ago, those numbers were about the same: a 6.4-point lead and an 85 percent chance. In our polls-plus forecast, Clinton’s chances are 84 percent, up only slightly from 82 percent a week ago.
.
.
The charts below — which are based on 20,000 simulations from our model as of Friday afternoon2 — attempt to explain this by laying out four broad scenarios:

- A Trump win, including cases where he loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College.

- A narrow Clinton win, wherein she wins the Electoral College, but wins the popular vote by 3 percentage points or less. (Or wins the Electoral College and loses the popular vote.)

- A Clinton win in the “Obama zone,” wherein she wins the popular vote by 4 to 7 percentage points — the margins by which President Obama won the elections in 2012 and 2008, respectively. Clinton is all but certain to win the Electoral College if she wins the popular vote by this amount.

- Finally, a Clinton blowout, wherein she wins the popular vote by 8 points or more, which would almost certainly also yield a dominant performance in the Electoral College.

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10-24-2016 03:35 AM  13 months agoPost 2
spaceman spiff

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Tucson

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I pick option 1.

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10-24-2016 04:01 AM  13 months agoPost 3
nitro fun

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Oc ca

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President medusa lol...

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10-24-2016 04:55 AM  13 months agoPost 4
helicopter

rrApprentice

Omaha, Nebraska

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Or...
that could be David cutting the head
off Goliath.

I love gravity, it always keeps my feet planted when I fly!

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10-24-2016 05:46 AM  13 months agoPost 5
Zagnut

rrNovice

Illinois - USA

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I pick option 1.
You keep wishin and hopin, the odds makers in Vegas love foolish people.

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10-24-2016 09:18 AM  13 months agoPost 6
dilberteinstein

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texas - USA

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I suppose it depends upon whose survey you read.

Rasmussen says the opposite:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with a 43% to 41% lead over his Democratic rival. Five percent (5%) favor Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein earns three percent (3%) support. Another three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...use_watch_oct21

I believe the polls in the UK showed about an 80% chance of the UK staying in the EU, and we know how that turned out.

I wouldn't count Trump out yet.

Besides Hillary may stroke out anyway.

90% of life is "showing up"

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10-24-2016 09:49 AM  13 months agoPost 7
Mike0251

rrVeteran

Hills of the Blue​Ridge VA

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The polls are utter BS. The only true thing that matters is who shows up to vote. I venture to say the voting lines will be very long.
Here is a tidbit on the poll crapola:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ugh-oversamples

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10-24-2016 01:16 PM  13 months agoPost 8
fla heli boy

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cape coral, florida

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There was a big group sitting at a table at my watering hole waiting for the NFL games yesterday... and the all had on Deplorable-2016 shirts. They were all in their 70's. I went over and sat a while and talked. Everybody agreed.... never seen a Clinton sign or bumper sticker, nobody knows a Clinton voter. Fully convinced that this SHOULD be a Trump blowout and all were concerned the machines have been rigged.
LOTS of people would pop over and join the conversation and all said the same thing.
They even got a couple Trump chants going and every single person joined in.
I believe my eyes and ears, not these MSM polls....

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10-24-2016 02:25 PM  13 months agoPost 9
RM3

rrElite Veteran

Killeen, Texas - USA

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I believe the polls in the UK showed about an 80% chance of the UK staying in the EU, and we know how that turned out.
...BREXIT....
exactly...

I dont believe the polls either for 1 very specific reason: look how many people were polled. Most have used less than 1,000 people over the entire United states, or only 20 people per state.... You think you can get an accurate prediction based on 1,000 people out of the say 120,000,000 that normally vote (this was 2012s number), and its already been stated that millions more will vote this time around. And the people polled are the ones that bothered to even respond, these were Robo calls to older americans that were desperate to talk to someone for all we know.

This is cool aid boys. All psychological warfare.

showing a preference will only get you into trouble, 90% of everything is crap...

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10-24-2016 02:39 PM  13 months agoPost 10
RMSLINKERS

rrApprentice

Audubon, Minnesota

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MSM may hope to have many voter stay home if it looks like Trump has no chance. Don't be fooled by them since they will work every angle they can. Trump voters need to turn out in mass no matter what the MSM put out. Hopefully it will backfire and the Hillary voters will stay home getting high and not vote.

If it isn't beating the air up it isn't flying

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10-24-2016 04:30 PM  13 months agoPost 11
fla heli boy

rrKey Veteran

cape coral, florida

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^^^ yep. Even FOX is on the train now. They're all over blathering that the race is over. Done. Finito.
There are so many people that haven't voted in decades (probably since Reagan) that ARE going to vote this time and for one reason: there's a non-politician running.
IF there is no cheating or rigging, I truly believe he'll win, by a large margin.
Do I think he will??? Nope. The fix has been in since the day she pronounced she was running.

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10-24-2016 05:36 PM  13 months agoPost 12
GyroFreak

rrProfessor

Orlando Florida​...28N 81W

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Truck trailer parked in front of large structural cement company.

I think about the hereafter. I go somewhere to get something, then wonder what I'm here after ?

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10-24-2016 05:40 PM  13 months agoPost 13
GyroFreak

rrProfessor

Orlando Florida​...28N 81W

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Yard sign in nearby area.
.
Crime Does Pay
Just ask the Clintons

I think about the hereafter. I go somewhere to get something, then wonder what I'm here after ?

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10-24-2016 05:57 PM  13 months agoPost 14
1helimech

rrVeteran

NW Fla....

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Just voted there was NO parking room in our library parking lot, had to park off "campus" and walk about a block just to vote !!! It was a great morning for a walk with my wife though. The line to vote was out the door and into the parking lot too... reporting from SW Pensacola, Fla. US of A

I dream of a better world, A world where a chicken's crossing a road IS NOT questioned

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10-24-2016 05:57 PM  13 months agoPost 15
spaceman spiff

rrKey Veteran

Tucson

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You keep wishin and hopin, the odds makers in Vegas love foolish people.
Yup. There are more Lemings than Eagles.

Congradulations.

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10-24-2016 11:16 PM  13 months agoPost 16
bparro

rrVeteran

indianapolis,in

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Everyone was also saying he would never never ever get the nomination either...Im going out to vote.

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